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(solution) As the Assistant Vice President of a manufacturing company you


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As the Assistant Vice President of a manufacturing company you have to evaluate a

 

projectproposal to invest in a new production facility. The expected gross revenue from

 

salesbased onprior market researchis as follows.YearAnnualRevenue (inmillions of

 

2016real US$)2016Nil201720201840201960202080Each yearfrom 2021100There are

 

two production technologies to choose from;

 

a basic machinery that costs US$300million in 2016withitsoperationalexpenses

 

(including all costs of production) amounting80million in 2016real US$ during each year

 

beginning 2017or an advanced machinery with anefficiency improvingadd-on which

 

costs an additional US$200 in2016but cuts operationalexpenses by10million US$ (in

 

2016real US$) from 2017.

 

Option

 

A Option

 

B Capital cost in 2016(in millionsof 2016realUS$)300500Operational expensesin each

 

yearfrom2017(in millions of 2016real US$)8070a.If therealinterest rate is3% which of

 

the two options are profitable? If both are profitablewhich one is more profitable?

 

(Hint: Calculate the net cash flowsof each of the twoinvestments and find the Net

 

Present Value when the real interest rate is3%).b.Ifthe real interest rate drops to2.75%

 

which of the two options are profitable? If both areprofitable which one is more

 

profitable?c.Ifthe real interest rate dropsfurtherto2.5% which of the two options are

 

profitable? Ifboth are profitable which one ismore profitable?d.Ifthe real interest rate

 

dropsfurtherto2.25% which of the two options are profitable? Ifboth are profitable which

 

one is more profitable?e.If your company plans to borrow funds for this project show

 

howthedemand for loansduring 2016changeswhen the real interest rate (borrowing rate)

 

changes from3% to2.75%and to2.5%.22.

 

Term premiums for bonds with different maturities are given below.Bond maturity

 

(years)Term premium (%)1020.2530.340.3550.4a.Current interestrate is 4%. The term

 

structures of bonds maturing in 1-5 years when theexpected interest rate (from next

 

year onwards) changes from 2.5% to 5.5% are shown inthe following diagram.

 

Reproduce the following diagram using Excel.b.Comment on the nature ofthe term

 

structure when the interest rate is expected to be0.25% lower than the current

 

level.c.Comment on the nature of the term structure when the interest rate is expected

 

to be0.75% lower than the current level.33.544.555.5612345Interest rateMaturity

 

(Years)Term Structure when the expected interest rate changesfrom 2.55.5%2.533.544.555.5

 


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