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(solution) business statistics assessment, the topic is time series and


business statistics assessment, the topic is time series and index numbers. 


Assessment task for Time series/ Index Numbers sem 1 2016

 

handing in

 

Firstly fill in section A Print off and complete before Name : Section A (2 marks)

 

Your student number is S 3 4 8 3 0 6 1 You will make some numbers using your student number

 

The first number, to be used in question 1, is the first two digits of your student number Now referred as A The second number will also be used in Question 1. It is made from the last two digits in your student

 

number

 

Now referred as B The Third number will be used Question 1, and is made using the third and fourth digits of your student

 

number

 

Now referred as C The Fourth number will also be used Question 1, and is made using the Fourth and fifth digits of your

 

student number

 

Now referred as D The Fourth number will be used Question 1, and is made using the first and sixth digits of your student

 

number

 

Now referred as E Eight numbers to be used in Question 2 will be made from the digits 1 First

 

Digit 1 Second

 

Digit 1 Sixth

 

Digit 1 Seventh

 

Digit 1 Third

 

Digit And also 1 Fourth

 

Digit 1 Fifth

 

Digit Your age 22 List the 8numbers you will be using in the box below, And this will be referred to as data set F Question 1 (11 marks) Document: qattachments_5893efc52e493164100db49fd177530352659dfa.doc

 

RMIT University Save Date: 16/10/2016

 

Page 1 of 4 The price of Two hats, the ?regency?, and also the ?Dapper? for the years 2010, 2012 and 2015

 

are listed below. This is the cost for a single hat in $.

 

Hat

 

Regency

 

Dapper 2010

 

$25.00

 

$ C 2012

 

$ B

 

$23.00 2015

 

$26.00

 

$E a) Using 2010 as the base year calculate the Simple Price index for each of the hats in 2015 ( 1 + 1 marks)

 

b) Use the above information to calculate the Simple aggregate index for 2012 using 2010 as the base year

 

Interpret your answer ( 3+ 1 marks) The actual numbers (quantity) of hats sold for each of the years were:

 

room

 

Regency

 

Dapper 2010 2012 2015 A

 

C B

 

D C

 

A c) Calculate the Laspeyres index for 2015 using 2010 as the base year. Interpret your answer.

 

( 4 + 1 marks) Question 2 (20 marks)

 

The following table represents the number of enrolments in a first year business statistics course over an

 

eight year period: Place your data set F Starting from the first number in row 1 down to the last in row 8

 

Document: qattachments_5893efc52e493164100db49fd177530352659dfa.doc

 

RMIT University Save Date: 16/10/2016

 

Page 2 of 4 Year Enrolments 1

 

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

8 MA (3 year) Regression line

 

predictions Errors for the

 

regression line

 

predictions Error ^2 ----------- I. Calculate the 3 year Moving Average forecast and complete the MA (3 year) column above. II. Using the regression line Enrolments = 0.85(Year) + 11 + ?1 + ?2

 

Where ?1 = - 5 for years 1, 3, 5, 7

 

And ?2 = + 4 for years 2, 4, 6, 8 Predict the enrolment for each of the years and complete the fourth column? Regression line

 

predictions?

 

III. Calculate the errors for regression line prediction, and complete the 5th column IV. Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for Regression V. Calculate the MSE (Mean Square of Errors ) for Regression VI

 

Graph your first two table columns (Year and enrolments) as a time series below and describe

 

the plot ( Be mindful of trend, and cyclic variation ( if any) ) ( 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 4) Question 3 (7 marks) a. If you had the following monthly data

 

Month

 

January Profit ($)

 

2400

 

Document: qattachments_5893efc52e493164100db49fd177530352659dfa.doc RMIT University Save Date: 16/10/2016

 

Page 3 of 4 February

 

3200

 

March

 

2050

 

April

 

The forecast for April using a 3 month moving average would be

 

A. 3200

 

B. 2060

 

C. 2550

 

D. None of the above

 

b If you had the following monthly data

 

Month

 

Actual

 

January

 

2200

 

February

 

3000

 

March

 

2500

 

April

 

3500

 

The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) would be _______.

 

A. 600

 

B. 150

 

C. 3500

 

D. 100

 

c. If you had the following weekly data

 

Week

 

1

 

2

 

3

 

4 Predicted

 

2100

 

3200

 

2500

 

3400 Actual

 

90

 

102

 

96

 

99 Predicted

 

92

 

101

 

97

 

97 The Mean Square of Errors (MSE) would be _______.

 

A. 18

 

B. 5

 

C. 36

 

D. 2.5

 

( 1 mark each)

 

d. Give an everyday example of the following components in time series

 

Irregular variation

 

Seasonal variation

 

Cyclic variation

 

Trend ( 1 mark each) Document: qattachments_5893efc52e493164100db49fd177530352659dfa.doc

 

RMIT University Save Date: 16/10/2016

 

Page 4 of 4

 


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